Two days following the only televised debate in English, Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives appear to be in a dead heat with Justin Trudeau’s Liberals in terms of the popular vote.
As of Oct. 8, The CBC’s Canada Poll Tracker, an aggregation of all publicly available polling data, has the Liberals slightly ahead with 34.2% of the vote to the Conservatives’ 33.3%.
The Poll Tracker has the New Democrats trailing in third place at only 13.8 per cent support. They are pulling away slightly from Elizabeth May and the Greens, who are running at 9.3 per cent.
The trend line for the Greens has been largely flat over the course of the campaign, while that of Jagmeet Singh’s NDP has been slightly up. However, the fact that the NDP and Greens are so far behind and seem to have so little momentum, has increased the perception of a two-horse race between the Conservatives and Liberals despite generally favourable reviews of Singh’s debate performance.
According to the Poll Tracker, the dead heat in the national popular vote between the Liberals and Conservatives masks some of the lopsided regional battlegrounds across the country that put the Liberals slightly ahead in the seat count despite a tie in the popular vote.
Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives, for example, hold a lead of 40 points in Alberta and nearly 24 points in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Altogether, the Poll Tracker estimates that would deliver around 55 seats to the Conservatives.
According to the Poll Tracker, the Liberals’ lead of six points in Ontario and 14 points in Quebec likely would deliver around 120 seats at this point — enough on its own to put the party most of the way toward a majority government.
Still, current polling suggests neither party is in line to win the 170 seats needed for a majority. The numbers as of today suggest roughly 157 seats going to the Liberals and 140 going to the Conservatives. The NDP, Bloc and Greens have roughly another 40 seats between them.
The Poll Tracker puts the chances of a Liberal majority government at 32% and a Conservative majority government at 10%.
In summary, while the Liberals seem to have dropped a point or two following the Trudeau, “blackface” incident, most pollsters see the two parties essentially tied with a very good chance of a minority government.
The question then becomes: whose minority government?
The implications of a Conservative government
In considering whether the Liberals or Conservatives should form a minority government, we need to look south of the border to Trump’s Ukraine scandal and the formal House impeachment hearings, to Britain and Boris Johnson’s anti-democratic parliamentary maneuvering to crash the U.K. out of the EU without a deal, and to Doug Ford’s unpopular government in Ontario.
And the reason we need to look closely at the present state of affairs in the U.S., Britain and Ontario is they are all run by right wing, populist governments with much in common with Scheer’s Conservative Party.
In other words, we need to ask what a right wing, populist Conservative government would really mean for Canada.
Pollster Frank Graves and commentator Michael Valpy see the emergence of two distinct blocks of voters in Canada.
One block consists of “people rooted in a specific place or community, socially conservative, often less educated, mainly male, mainly but by no means exclusively older and white”. This is Canada’s right-wing populist voting block.
The other block consists of “those who come from “anywhere” — footloose, often urban, socially liberal and university educated.”
Graves and Valpy see Canada’s political parties orienting themselves around these two blocks of voters with the Conservative Party attracting the vast majority of right wing, populist voters and the four other main parties splitting the more socially liberal voting block.
In their eyes, the polarization between these two distinct kinds of voters “have created two irreconcilable Americas, two irreconcilable Britains and two irreconcilable Canadas.”
Graves and Valpy point out that the numbers of Canadians being drawn into the right-wing populist camp are not noticeably increasing. While that may be the case, they also caution that:
“It’s not the populist numbers — about 34 per cent of the adult population, smaller than the 44 per cent in the U.S. — it’s the extreme polarization exhibited by those swept into the populist vortex: the depth of their feeling, their anger and their passion. Plus in the last few years they’ve become politicized, drawn almost entirely into one political party, the Conservatives.”
In a study reported by N. Y. Times columnist Thomas B. Edsall, academic researchers reported similar findings. The study done by political scientists Michael Bang Petersen, Mathias Osmundsen and Kevin Arceneaux focus on a voting block that favours “chaos” in politics. According to the authors (as reported by Edsall):
“The responses to three statements related to a preference for chaos in politics were “staggering”: 24 percent agreed that society should be burned to the ground; 40 percent concurred with the thought that “When it comes to our political and social institutions, I cannot help thinking ‘just let them all burn”; and 40 percent also agreed that “we cannot fix the problems in our social institutions, we need to tear them down and start over.”
The two studies may analyse the values of the right-wing, populist voting block in slightly different ways, but there is no question that they are talking about the political values of the same large block of voters.
And in Canada, those voters are overwhelmingly supporting Andrew Scheer’s Conservative Party.
This has important implications if the Conservatives are able to form a government after the October 21 federal election.
At the root of the problem is that while the majority of Canadians may reject the right-wing populism now represented by Scheer’s Conservatives, the progressive vote is spread across four centre-left political parties while the right-wing populist vote falls almost entirely within the ranks of the Conservatives. That is why their political influence is so pronounced during this election – they are keeping the Scheer Conservatives in the race.
Like the populist base of Trump’s Republican Party and that of Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party in the U.K., the right wing, populist base supporting the Conservative Party of Canada is mistrustful of the “mainstream” media, facts, science, experts (including the civil service) and climate change. Most importantly, they prefer to base their policy preferences more on a given policy’s gut appeal than on evidence. These voters also reflect the values and cultural norms of “old stock” Canadians and are uncomfortable with the growth of visible minorities in urban areas across the country.
Perhaps not surprisingly, the Conservatives are also increasingly supported by Canada’s self-defined upper class.
Graves and Valpy report that the Tories have a huge lead with this group who support the Conservatives because they strongly believe that a Conservative party government’s actual policies will serve their class interests.
In other words, Canada’s rich and powerful (who are extremely knowledgeable about the specific policies of the main political parties) are swinging strongly behind Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives because they support a policy agenda consisting of cuts to social programs, tax reductions for business, deregulation, weak unions, privatization and a low minimum wage.
Canada’s business community also supports this traditional conservative policy agenda. This largely hidden alliance of the losers and the biggest winners in the new economy is critical to right wing populism’s success. Again, exactly the same thing has happened in the U.S. and Britain.
Conclusion
The central argument of this post is this: the Conservative Party of Canada and parties like Doug Ford’s Ontario Progressive Conservative Party, are not like the Liberals, NDP or Greens.
The Conservative Party is different not because it is more market oriented, would kill the carbon tax or because it supports the traditional conservative, small government policy agenda. Whether one agrees with such policies or not, they constitute an entirely legitimate program for a right-of-centre party. Rather, what separates the Conservative Party from the other mainstream parties is that they are captive to, a minority, populist voting block that distrusts expertise and hard facts, dislikes change, and is profoundly uncomfortable with the increase in visible minority Canadians.
But what is most disturbing about this right-wing, populist voting block is its indifference to the health of our democratic institutions and practices. Again as described in the study cited above, this voting block has a “preference for chaos in politics” (eg. 40% of the respondents in the study support the statement that “When it comes to our political and social institutions, I cannot help thinking ‘just let them all burn'”). The implications of this “preference for chaos” are on full display in the U.S. and Britain where Trump and Johnson are playing to this base.
What can’t be emphasized enough is that this voting block is both angry and fearful and that the Conservative Party of Canada is increasingly beholden to it. Even more concerning is the fact that it is in the Conservative Party’s interest for this voting block to become even angrier and more fearful because the angrier and more fearful this segment of the population becomes, the more likely they are to vote on October 21. And the Conservatives need a high turn-out from these voters if they are going to win.
The irony is that while conservative political parties created the right-wing, populist voting block described above, they have now become prisoners of it. As Trump has made clear time after time, right-wing, populist leaders will do and say anything to energise their minority base.
Trump’s supporters (like the supporters of Ontario Premier Doug Ford and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson) see Trump as someone who raises a middle finger to propriety, to elites and to the establishment. They like this because they see these populist conservative leaders as “one of us” taking on the “elites”.
Of course, these right wing, populist political leaders are not “one of us”. The fact is that all 3 populist leaders come from very wealthy families and the policies they implement have the overwhelming support of the wealthy and large corporations because these policies are in their class interests.
And this is what will make a Conservative government so dangerous should they gain power. They know that their right-wing populist base represents no more than 35% of Canadians and that to be re-elected, they will have to keep that base energised and motivated. If Trump’s Republican Party in the U.S. and the Conservative Party in Britain (eg. Boris Johnson’s anti-democratic Brexit antics, etc.) are any example, this will mean that their right-wing populism will become more and more extreme. And remember, we are now talking about a Conservative government in control of the full machinery of the Canadian state – not just an opposition party limited to rhetorically whipping up its base.
In their important book, How Democracies Die, Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt write:
“An essential test for democracies is not whether such (authoritarian) figures emerge but whether political leaders, and especially political parties, work to prevent them from gaining power in the first place – by keeping them off mainstream party tickets, refusing to endorse or align with them and, when necessary, making common cause with rivals in support of democratic candidates.
Isolating popular extremists requires political courage. But when fear, opportunism or miscalculation leads established parties to bring extremists into the mainstream, democracy is imperiled.
Once a would-be authoritarian makes it to power, democracies face a second critical test: will the autocratic leader subvert democratic institutions or be constrained by them?
Institutions alone are not enough to rein in elected autocrats. Constitutions must be defended – by political parties and organized citizens but also by democratic norms. Without robust norms, constitutional checks and balances do not serve as the bulwarks of democracy we imagine them to be. Institutions become political weapons, wielded forcefully by those who control them against those who do not.
This is how elected autocrats subvert democracy – packing and “weaponizing” the courts and other neutral agencies, buying off the media and the private sector (or bullying them into silence) and rewriting the rules of politics to tilt the playing field against opponents. The tragic paradox of the electoral route to authoritarianism is that democracy’s assassins use the very institutions of democracy – gradually, subtly, and even legally – to kill it.”
This post is being written on October 2. The federal election is October 21.
Here is what is happening as I write in jurisdictions where right wing populist governments are in power.
Donald Trump is President of the United States and is under impeachment because he pressured a foreign country to dig up dirt on his principal political opponent.
Doug Ford is Premier of Ontario, there is chaos in the schools, and he has a record low 20% favourability rating.
Boris Johnson became Prime Minister of Britain on July 24 and there has been chaos in the U.K. ever since as he seems determined to crash Britain out of the European Union without a deal – a sure recipe for an economic disaster.
This is the reality of right wing, populist governments in power and the question is do we want that kind of government in Ottawa.
Again, current polling suggests that this election is heading towards a minority government in which the Liberals and Conservatives will have to have some sort of agreement with one or more of the smaller parties to be able to form a government.
The Liberals, NDP, Greens and the Bloc really need to talk about what the next government of Canada will look like if no party wins the 170 seats needed for a majority.
And they need to start talking now.
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An analysis of the current forces present prior to the upcoming election.
These opinions cannot be ignored as the attempts to undermine democracy as we have known it, have migrated to and will continue on our soil,
Perhaps, instead of fear-mongering about the “dangers” in electing a Conservative government, you might want to investigate and report upon why so many Canadians are feeling so underrepresented and abandoned by the government in power. This supposedly unbiased and balanced article appears to be an opinion piece disguised as a news article. How much grief would a legitimate news source receive by leading with the headline, “The Dangers in Re-Electing Justin Trudeau”?
Fear the Conservatives? LOL!
Look who was guilty of breaking ethics laws,,,, and the other corrupt unmentionables!
I agree with you, Terry! Robocalls, In-and-Out Scandal, Pamela Wallin, Mike Duffy, Dean del Mastro violating the Canada Elections Act.
Oh everyone has forgotten … the ethical issues of the former Conservative Government- Robocalls, In-and-Out Scandal, Pamela Wallin, Mike Duffy, Dean del Mastro violating the Canada Elections Act.
Thus Far, Trudeau has proved to be little more than a reckless man-child who has turned Canada into an international laughing stock. Andrew Scheer would be considerably less “dangerous” than the empty-headed millennials who insist on keeping Trudeau in power.
This group of neo-conservative populists should be fearful. We liberals/progressives will do everything we can to make sure their hateful policies are NEVER allowed to be put into practice in Canada.
I invite all those Canadians who think Trump has it right to leave immediately and take up residence in CheetoLand.
We have the power of demographics with us. There are more of us and we’re younger (although there are more than a few geezers like me who will fight populism at every turn). You will soon be gone into the grave, taking your bigotry, racism and evangelical Christianity with you.
“Most importantly, they prefer to base policy more on its gut appeal to their core, populist base, than on evidence.”
Because I’m sure that progressive liberals can’t be accused of the same thing, give me a break.
Have to consider and respect the BIGGER PICTURE because that is what is going to be in place when this skirmish is over.
Trump seems to have more common sense then any career politician (who are just open to corporate and foreign bribes). I don’t give a damn about left or right – I care about who is the least corrupt.
Progressives are destroying society like never before – dumbest PC laws, promoting China’s interests, giving terrorists millions, clearly corrupt as hell.
No one worries about LEGAL immigration – what people don’t like are Syrian Refugees and illegal immigration period. We DO NOT want sharia law and other BS like that here.
Couldn’t agree more. Wish there were more people out there thinking for themselves. Whoever thinks a conservative government in Canada (one that is barely right of centre) that emphasizes individual liberty instead of big government, lowers taxes to incentivize new businesses, jobs and start-ups (all things that allow a country to thrive), and is concerned about our rapidly growing debt destabilizing our country and making us vulnerable to recessions is clearly not being taught in school how the world really works. The ndp, greens and libs can keep promising free everything to people but don’t forget that when push comes to shove, it’s coming out of all of our pockets in the end.
Government doesn’t make money, it just spends it (unproductively)
Next time you go to the doctor or hospital – think about it with care as the Conservatives would have you paying for this yourself ..and once you are ready to retire I hope you have a lot of personal money as Scheer will make it sure there is NO support for you at that time … Yes it is out of our money why not – we gave them the money in the first place …
Are you guys NUTS?
Boy, do you guys ever need more information… like maybe a whole Education on how the World works, including Countries ( like Ours ) and neighbourhoods ( like ours ).
It’s hard not to notice that all the comments that hate this well written article pretty much prove the article’s point by being perfect examples of what it talks about – angry, afraid of immigrants and especially refugees, scornful of media, distrustful of facts, pro-big business, afraid of unions, scornful of public programs (even though they benefit from them), and hateful of anything progressive.
haha YEEEES!!!!
Ignorance and grievance is ruling the day. This world is in chaos and fascists stand to destroy democracies. Voting for conservatives is leading to madness. When you believe that trump is the best choice, it is clear that you are unable to think critically. The same applies to Boris Johnson and Scheer.
Oh everyone has forgotten … the ethical issues of the former Conservative Government- Robocalls, In-and-Out Scandal, Pamela Wallin, Mike Duffy, Dean del Mastro violating the Canada Elections Act.
Anyone who has read Roy Scranton, or Ece TemelKuran is well aware of how the hard right movement is a world wide phenonemon. Climate change deniers (there is no such thing as climate don’t you know!), war mongering (Trump’s constant insisting that nations spend more on arms – more on death), deeply religious extremists (Christians who make the people who perpetrated the Inquisition look like angels) anti-science, anti women, anti gay, anti anyone who threatens their God given right to be proudly ignorant, loud, obnoxious, liars, and murderers. Mass murderers who will do nothing to mitigate climate disasters while people die, en mass. Conservatives who also are in support of guns, criminalizing the poor (Trump wants to criminalize homelessness), criminalizing people who work in the public sector (Kenney has removed the word public from schools ergo the word public is now illegal to use) and all public employees will be vilified, seen as parasites and anti business thereby against the real people (conservatives). Moreover, Kenney is criminalizing environmentalists and even has a snitch line so Albertans can report their family, friends and neighbours as being enemies of the state – which is exactly what Hitler did! Conservatives strongly support people who idolize the policies of the Third Reich when millions were murdered because they were different in various ways. Undoubtedly an insignificant nonevent according to the many Nazis who support conservatives – We have not seen anything yet! To the many billions who will perish under conservative authoritarian rule. Goebbels is laughing from his grave as the hard right have complete control over the media and the all important message that utter madness is normal. Conservatives are completely shameless and no words can make them reflect upon what they are doing to destroy democracies worldwide. The USA is a polarized nation, and so too are nations that have elected or will elect hard right people who are wilfully “leading” the masses to their final demise.
There is chaos in the schools! The fourth graders are in the grade 2 classroom! Students are leaving the toilet seats up! Nobody’s taking their shoes off on the mats! All because of Doug Ford and his crazy idea that money doesn’t grow on trees!
Just recently Scheer’s released their platform too late for election by saying cutting social program but after seeing few video saying 3% increase of healthcare and social program! Which is which! He is almost as Doug ford! Come on Canada your voices know on Oct 21 so Scheer can be kept on leash!
You hit the nail on the head. And judging by half of the angry, right-wing populist type comments, people have not been doing their independent reading. I am quite sick of this election and people who get their news through attack ads, major media news outlets presenting all things positive regarding the right, assumptions, etc. Scheer losing is the only way to get back to a “normal” conservative party.