While the Liberals seem to be on a slight upswing over the past month, most pollsters see the two parties essentially tied in terms of seats if an election were held today.
So certainly a Conservative plurality is a strong possibility in the coming October election even if a Conservative majority government is somewhat less likely.
What would a Conservative government mean for Canada?
Pollster Frank Graves and commentator Michael Valpy see the emergence of two distinct blocks of voters in Canada. One block consists of “people rooted in a specific place or community, socially conservative, often less educated, mainly male, mainly but by no means exclusively older and white”. The other block consists of “those who come from “anywhere” — footloose, often urban, socially liberal and university educated.” Graves and Valpy see Canada’s political parties orienting themselves around these two blocks of voters.
In their eyes, the polarization between these two distinct kinds of voters “have created two irreconcilable Americas, two irreconcilable Britains and two irreconcilable Canadas.”